Friday’s numbers helped Pound and Euro scream to the upside and recover any losses earlier in the week. Most of this week, EUR/USD had been working on a possible weekly closing price reversal until Friday’s rally. The current upside momentum indicates that this market may be poised to test the high for the year at 1.4330 level in EUR/USD. If momentum continues, the Euro may see 1.4500 fairly easily. I will be looking for some kind of correction from the sharp rally on Friday but after that, will be cautiously long.
Cable closed above the 1.670 level which was stiff resistance for quite sometime. GBP/USD and EUR/USD are both in position to possibly breakout to the Upside. If indeed the Pound and Euro breakout, I feel it will be sharp due to short covering and trigger happy bidders.
The USD CAD tested the low for the week and closed in a position to break support and head lower.
- US Q2 GDP falls 1.0% slightly better than expected, consumer spending weak; Q1 revised much weaker, down -6.4%
- NY City NAPM rises to 48.3 from 44.8
- Chicago PMI rises to 43.4 in July from 39.9, slightly better than expected
- IMF: Dollar moderately overvalued
- JP Morgan raises Q3 GDP forecast to 3%
- Fitch maintains UK AAA rating
- Cash for clunkers success has economists forecasting a jump in US auto production in second half with positive GDP impact
- Obama: Guardedly optimistic economy has turned quarter
- ECB Sources: ECB preparing further non-standard measures in case rebound does not take hold- Market News International
- US equities ended essentially unchanged, rise 7.8% on the month; bond yields fall 12 bp after mixed GDP, auction aftermath
- Oil rises 3.2% to $69.05, Copper rises 2.5%, CRB index up 1.7%
Risk appetite in equity markets continue to put the Yen under selling pressure.
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Weekend Technical Analysis – Forex – July 25
24 July 2009 4:50 PM | View CommentsTriangles in EUR/USD and GBP/USD are still intact somewhat. Both are still within the larger Rising Wedges *Yellow dashes. Every break above 1.4230 was sold into every time though managed to get above 1.4250 (which is a pretty good resistance level) multiple times. Cable (GBP/USD) is up against stiffer resistance and looks to want to [...]
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Weekend Technical Analysis – Forex – October 18th
18 October 2009 9:49 AM | View CommentsEUR/USD made a major push this week and broke through 1.50 but was unable to close above there. Main support is still 1.4850 area for now but a daily close above 1.50 should bring euro bulls to the table. GBP/USD made a huge move which looked to me to be profit taking and/or [...]
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Weekend Techincal Analysis – Forex – June 5th 2010
06 June 2010 2:02 PM | View CommentsOh how the mighty have fallen.. The Euro once again does not fail to disappoint. Currency and Equity markets are almost caught up. This coming week will be critical. The descending triangle on $EUR/USD broke down nicely and had a bearish close this week below the 1.20 level. I closed my short [...]
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Technical Analysis – Futures – July 25
24 July 2009 5:25 PM | View Comments10 year note found some support around the 116 level and rallied sharply topping out at around 118. Luckily was able to catch most of the move. Few days later, the note sold off sharply back into to 116′015 due to the rally in equities. It’s been awhile since treasuries have been this [...]
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Weekend Technical Analysis July 4th 2009 – Forex
04 July 2009 10:04 AM | View CommentsThis was one crazy week in all markets. To recap Monday morning we had ramp job in Crude due to a Short Squeeze. Apparently a “Rouge Trader” was short 9000 QM Futures contracts lol. It was an obvious short squeeze because at the time crude was ripping, currencies were just sitting there [...]
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